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ASEPA’s position on the latest EIU report-Mensah Thompson Writes


We have reviewed the latest report by the Economic Intelligence Unit on the current and future outlook of Ghana and here are few observations…

It is important to note that the EIU Report is purely an Economic Outlook Assessment Report which focuses on the assessment of the Country’s Economic data and based on that makes forecast on what the future looks like for the Country.
The EIU Report is not a Political Poll, that collects views of prospective voters in a peculiar mechanism that makes possible for the EIU to make near perfect predictions of the outcome of the 2020 elections.

2. Based on the premise above, any analysis of the EIU Report should focus on the Economic trend analysis(which is the focus of the research) that has been carried out extensively by the EIU and have made some compelling revelations and forecasts.

3. The EIU Report admits a fundamental weakness and mismanagement of the Ghanaian economy.
Pages 10 and 11 of the report talks highlights how the 123 number of Ministers of the current Government challenges Government’s ability to maintain fiscal discipline.
The Report talks about the pressure on the Ghanaian currency and how that has been poorly managed and how it expects the Ghanaian currency to depreciates further in the coming days.
The Report also highlights in clear terms how a number of the campaign promises of Government remains largely unfulfilled.

3.The Report also talks about lack of opportunities at the lower level of the Political ladder that has the ability to impact hugely on voter turn out in the next elections.
Now this point very significant because it borders on employment and creating opportunities for young people and how that has a tendency to disadvantage the incumbent in the next elections.

4. The Report further highlights the level of corruption and cronyism in the current Government which it describes as endemic.
This certainly is NOT a good accolade for any government seeking re-election at this stage.

5. Under the Political outlook, the EIU based its outlook predictions largely on the perception it believes still exists that Ghanaians trust the NPP as better custodians of the Economy as compared to the NDC under Mahama.
This point brings me to point one, that the EIU report is purely an economic report and has NOT collected and analysed any Political data and so that assertion is very contestable.

6. If the EIU has collected data from prospective Voters, it would have realised that the conclusion it drew that Ghanaians still believe that the NPP are better custodians of the Economy is largely inaccurate.
In recent times, Dr.Bawumiah the Vice President who is the figure in the middle of this supposed confidence in the NPP as better managers of the Economy has come under serious ridicule and attacks by *”Non- Political actors.”* emphasis is on non Political actors!!!
This is NOT a Joke, and still maintaining that Ghanaians still trust Dr.Bawumiah whose management flaws has to the fore even more profoundly now may be a flawed assertion considering this new development which didn’t exist before the 2016 elections.

7. John Mahama over the last few months have grown tremendously, Public Confidence in Candidate Mahama is continuously increasing by the day, his local and international image keeps growing and his general posture and conduct during this pandemic period has brought even more TRUST and CONFIDENCE in his candidature.
Something which was obviously missing in the EIU Report.

Finally the ECOWAS during the Ebola Pandemic unanimously settled on John Mahama to be the coordinator and leader in the sub region to bring the situation under control, a position he delivered creditably, Now the same ECOWAS in the midst of another pandemic overlooks President Akufo Addo and decided to settle on the old and weak Buhari to coordinate its response against the pandemic.
The EIU may decide to overlook this development, but this sends a strong signal of lack of confidence in the current Ghanaian leadership to it’s Citizens and the International community.

The EIU may be right its economic outlook assessment and predictions, but its forcast on the Political outlook may be largely inconclusive due to non consideration of recent socio political dynamics popping up among the Ghanaian Populace which could affect the 2020 elections a great deal.

Mensah Thompson
Executive Director, ASEPA
Source: Foster

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